250430

The provided excerpts identify the following stakeholders in docket UG-250430:

- Avista Corporation (dba Avista Utilities), the utility company filing the Natural Gas Conservation Potential Assessment (CPA).
- Washington Utilities and Transportation Commission (WUTC), the regulatory body receiving and reviewing the filing.
- Applied Energy Group (AEG), the independent third party engaged by Avista to prepare the CPA and supporting documentation.

The excerpts do not mention any other intervenors, public stakeholders, or parties submitting comments for or against specific proposals in the docket. There is no information in the excerpts regarding support or opposition to any proposals by any stakeholder. The documents primarily describe the submission and correction of the CPA, as well as the provision of confidential supporting attachments, but do not include positions or arguments for or against the proposals within the docket 1 2.

The assessment highlights several financial and timeline risks and concerns:

- Many of the inputs used in the conservation potential analysis are averages across market segments, which may not accurately reflect the potential at individual customer sites. This introduces uncertainty in the estimates, and actual savings could be higher or lower than projected depending on participation decisions of key customers. As a result, the amount of savings Avista is able to achieve may significantly vary from the identified potential, increasing financial risk related to program outcomes and resource planning timelines 1.

- A small number of large transportation customers account for a substantial portion of consumption. Whether these customers choose to participate in future efficiency programs will greatly influence savings acquisition. This concentration creates both financial risk (as a few customers’ choices can affect overall results) and timeline risk (depending on when or if they participate) 1.

- To address these uncertainties, the assessment recommends Avista sponsor audits for specific large transportation customer sites and conduct targeted outreach to gauge likelihood and timing of participation, which itself introduces additional planning and resource allocation considerations 1.

The docket identifies the following areas of growth:

Residential and Commercial Sectors
- The baseline projection for Avista’s Idaho service territory indicates that annual natural gas use is expected to experience modest annual growth, primarily driven by the residential and commercial sectors. From 2021 to 2045, residential sector usage is projected to increase by nearly 30% (from 5,617,143 to 7,295,165 dtherms), with commercial usage also rising (specific figures for commercial are not detailed in the excerpt but are included in the trend) 1, 1.
- Key considerations:
- Customer growth forecasts and new construction in these sectors are significant drivers.
- Equipment purchase shares, appliance/efficiency standards, and adoption of energy-efficient technologies impact overall consumption and savings potential 1.
- Market segmentation includes building types, end uses, and differentiation by income level for residential, and by building type for commercial 1, 1.

Industrial Sector
- The industrial sector also shows projected growth, with annual natural gas use in Washington increasing from 266,766 dtherms in 2021 to 286,099 dtherms in 2045 (a 7.25% increase) 1.
- Key considerations:
- Growth is less pronounced than in residential or commercial sectors.
- End-use applications (such as process heating, space heating) and adoption of efficient technologies are important.

Energy Efficiency and Conservation Potential
- Significant opportunities exist for energy efficiency, with top measures for residential including furnaces, insulation, and clothes washers; and for commercial, pipe insulation, HVAC energy recovery ventilators, retrocommissioning, and boiler economizers 1, 1.
- Key considerations:
- Technical, achievable technical, and achievable economic potential are used to estimate what portion of savings can realistically be achieved, accounting for cost-effectiveness and market adoption barriers 1.
- Conservation measures are assessed for both new construction and existing buildings with segmentation by building type, vintage, and end-use application 1, 1.

Demand Response (DR)
- DR is an emerging area, with potential for winter demand savings identified: Washington could save 128 dtherms (1.4% of winter system peak), Idaho 94 dtherms (1.5%), and Oregon 64 dtherms (1.5%) by 2045. The residential sector is the largest contributor to DR potential 1.
- Key considerations:
- DR program participation rates, overlap across programs, and market segmentation are important.
- Most DR potential resides in the residential sector due to a low number of industrial customers in Avista’s territory.

In summary, growth is primarily in residential and commercial sectors due to customer and economic growth, with energy efficiency and demand response providing significant potential for managing load and reducing use. Key considerations include market segmentation, equipment choices, cost-effectiveness of measures, and program adoption rates 1, 1, 1, 1.

Docket UG-250430 involves Avista Corporation's filing of its 2026-2045 Natural Gas Conservation Potential Assessment (CPA) with the Washington Utilities and Transportation Commission. The CPA, developed by Applied Energy Group (AEG), analyzes natural gas conservation opportunities across Avista’s Washington and Idaho service areas. Key points include:

- The CPA is a 20-year study required for Avista’s 2025 Integrated Resource Plan, assessing conservation potential by sector (residential, commercial, industrial) and end use (heating, water heating, appliances, process, etc.) 1, 1.
- The study provides baseline projections, energy efficiency potentials, and identifies top conservation measures for each sector and state.
- For Washington residential customers in 2021, there were 157,808 households using 11,356,811 dtherms, with space heating accounting for 83% of use 1, 1.
- The assessment uses Avista’s internal data, regional surveys, and national studies to forecast energy use and achievable conservation savings.
- The docket also notes that additional confidential supporting materials from AEG were filed as Attachment C, in compliance with regulatory requirements, with redacted and confidential versions provided to protect proprietary information 2, 2.

The excerpts do not provide a timeline of key events or submissions for this proceeding. They primarily contain technical analysis, assessment methodologies, projections, and program descriptions related to Avista's natural gas conservation potential. No information about procedural events, dates for filings, hearings, or other scheduled proceedings is included in the provided content.